UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, DC 20549
FORM 8-K
CURRENT REPORT
Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
September 9, 2009
Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported)
Commission File |
Exact Name of Registrant as Specified in Its Charter; State of Incorporation; Address of Principal Executive Offices; and Telephone Number |
IRS Employer Identification Number | ||
1-16169 | EXELON CORPORATION (a Pennsylvania corporation) 10 South Dearborn Street P.O. Box 805379 Chicago, Illinois 60680-5379 (312) 394-7398 |
23-2990190 | ||
333-85496 | EXELON GENERATION COMPANY, LLC (a Pennsylvania limited liability company) 300 Exelon Way Kennett Square, Pennsylvania 19348-2473 (610) 765-5959 |
23-3064219 | ||
1-1839 | COMMONWEALTH EDISON COMPANY (an Illinois corporation) 440 South LaSalle Street Chicago, Illinois 60605-1028 (312) 394-4321 |
36-0938600 | ||
000-16844 | PECO ENERGY COMPANY (a Pennsylvania corporation) P.O. Box 8699 2301 Market Street Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19101-8699 (215) 841-4000 |
23-0970240 |
Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:
¨ | Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425) |
¨ | Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12) |
¨ | Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b)) |
¨ | Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c)) |
Section 7 Regulation FD
Item 7.01. | Regulation FD Disclosure. |
On September 9, 2009, Exelon Corporation (Exelon) will participate in the Barclays Capital CEO Energy/Power Conference. Attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K are the presentation slides to be used at the conference.
Section 9 Financial Statements and Exhibits
Item 9.01. | Financial Statements and Exhibits. |
(d) Exhibits.
Exhibit No. |
Description | |
99.1 | Presentation slides |
* * * * *
This combined Form 8-K is being furnished separately by Exelon, Exelon Generation Company, LLC, Commonwealth Edison Company and PECO Energy Company (Registrants). Information contained herein relating to any individual Registrant has been furnished by such Registrant on its own behalf. No Registrant makes any representation as to information relating to any other Registrant.
This Current Report includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, that are subject to risks and uncertainties. The factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements include those discussed herein as well as those discussed in (1) Exelons 2008 Annual Report on Form 10-K in (a) ITEM 1A. Risk Factors, (b) ITEM 7. Managements Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations and (c) ITEM 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data: Note 18; (2) Exelons Second Quarter 2009 Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q in (a) Part II, Other Information, ITEM 1A. Risk Factors and (b) Part I, Financial Information, ITEM 1. Financial Statements: Note 14; and (3) other factors discussed in filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission by the Registrants. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which apply only as of the date of this Current Report. None of the Registrants undertakes any obligation to publicly release any revision to its forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this Current Report.
SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, each Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.
EXELON CORPORATION |
EXELON GENERATION COMPANY, LLC |
/s/ Matthew F. Hilzinger |
Matthew F. Hilzinger |
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer |
Exelon Corporation |
COMMONWEALTH EDISON COMPANY |
/s/ Joseph R. Trpik, Jr. |
Joseph R. Trpik, Jr. |
Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer |
Commonwealth Edison Company |
PECO ENERGY COMPANY |
/s/ Phillip S. Barnett |
Phillip S. Barnett |
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer |
PECO Energy Company |
September 9, 2009
EXHIBIT INDEX
Exhibit No. |
Description | |
99.1 | Presentation slides |
1 Barclays Capital CEO Energy/Power Conference William A. Von Hoene, Jr., EVP Finance and Legal September 9, 2009 Exhibit 99.1 |
2 Forward-Looking Statements This presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the
Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, that are subject to risks
and uncertainties. The factors that could cause actual results to differ
materially from these forward-looking statements include those discussed
herein as well as those discussed in (1) Exelons 2008 Annual Report on
Form 10-K in (a) ITEM 1A. Risk Factors, (b) ITEM 7. Managements Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations and (c) ITEM 8.
Financial Statements and Supplementary Data: Note 18; (2) Exelons
Second Quarter 2009 Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q in (a) Part II, Other
Information, ITEM 1A. Risk Factors and (b) Part I, Financial Information, ITEM 1. Financial Statements: Note 14 and (3) other factors discussed in filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)
by Exelon Corporation, Commonwealth Edison Company, PECO Energy Company and
Exelon Generation Company, LLC (Companies). Readers are cautioned not to
place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which apply
only as of the date of this presentation. None of the Companies undertakes any obligation to publicly release any revision to its forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after
the date of this presentation. |
3 Key Messages Consistently operating the largest nuclear fleet in the U.S. at world-class levels Executing hedging program to protect the value of our assets Achieving constructive financial and regulatory results at ComEd and PECO Delivering on cost savings commitments Pursuing financially disciplined organic growth across the business Improving long-term financial flexibility, including a discretionary pension contribution |
4 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% Range 5 Year Average Operational Excellence Across the Fleet Nuclear Capacity Factor Production Cost ($/MWh) Exelon Power Fleet Availability $10.00 $11.00 $12.00 $13.00 $14.00 $15.00 $16.00 $17.00 $18.00 $19.00 $20.00 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Exelon Industry (excl. Exelon) EXC: 93.8% 90.7% 93.5% 91.2% 89.1% 96.9% 92.9% 93.8% 94.8% 95.8% 96.6% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 YTD through 6/30 Fossil Fleet Commercial Availability Hydro Equivalent Availability |
5 (1) Percent of expected generation hedged represents how many equivalent MW have been hedged at forward market prices as of June 30, 2009; all hedge products used are converted to an equivalent average MW volume and the calculation considers whether hedges are power sales or financial products. (2) Represents an approximate range of expected gross margin, taking into account hedges in place, between the 5th and 95th percentile confidence levels. Approximate gross margin ranges are based upon an internal simulation model and are subject to change based upon market inputs, future transactions and potential modeling changes. These ranges of approximate gross margin in 2010 and 2011 do not represent earnings guidance or a forecast of future results as Exelon has not completed its planning or optimization processes for those years. The price distributions that generate this range are calibrated to market quotes for power, fuel, load following products and options as of June 30, 2009. Hedging program objectives: Manage market risks and protect the value of our generation and investment-grade
balance sheet Preserve our ability to participate in improving long-term market fundamentals
2009 2010 2011 Percentage of Expected Generation Hedged (1) 95-98% 87-90% 59-62% Midwest 96-99 87-90 63-66 Mid-Atlantic 95-98 91-94 56-59 South 90-93 68-71 34-37 95% case 5% case $6,700 $6,500 $6,100 $6,700 $6,100 $8,400 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 $9,000 $10,000 2009 2010 2011 Protecting the Long-Term Value of Our Assets By design, our hedging program allows us to weather short-term, adverse market
conditions, while positioning us to participate in long-term upside
potential |
6 Well-Positioned Delivery Companies Targeting earned ROEs of ~8% in 2009 and 9-10% in 2010 Rate structure and customer diversity in Large Commercial & Industrial customer class lessens the impact of declining load Legislation passed to enable recovery of uncollectible expense through a rider Annual Illinois Power Authority procurement events progressing as expected Anticipate filing electric distribution rate case in 2010 Targeting earned ROEs in excess of 11% in 2009-2010; 9-11.5% post- transition Solid credit coverage ratios and balance sheet strength First procurement event for post-2010 supply held in June, second this month Act 129 Energy Efficiency and Demand Reduction Plan filed on 7/1 Anticipate filing electric and gas distribution rate cases in 2010 Financial Regulatory/Legislative ComEd and PECO continue to deliver on financial targets and build constructive
regulatory and legislative relationships |
7 Delivering on Cost Savings Commitments Exelon is delivering on promise to hold 2009 O&M spending flat to 2008 and is
committed to savings of $350 million in 2010 from original planning assumptions,
including the following changes: Reduced positions by 500 (400 in corporate support and 100 at ComEd) Freezing executive salaries and reducing other compensation benefits in 2010 Exelon is responding to todays challenging environment by driving productivity
and cost reductions while maintaining superior operations (1) Reflects operating O&M data and excludes decommissioning impact. ComEd and
PECO operating O&M exclude energy efficiency costs recoverable under a rider. (2) Exelon Consolidated includes operating O&M expense from Holding
Company. (3) Reflects ~$175 million increase in operating O&M
expense from 2008A to 2009E due to higher pension and OPEB expense. Note:
Data contained on this slide is rounded. ExGen PECO ComEd $4.5B (2)(3) $4.5B (2) $4.35B (2) $4.7B (2) +4% O&M Expense (1) $2.7 $2.8 $2.7 $0.8 $0.7 $0.7 $1.1 $1.1 $1.0 2008A 2009E 2010 (Original Est) 2010 (Revised Est) |
8 Nuclear Uprates - ComEd and PECO have filed plans to make up to $1 billion in investments to build smart grid infrastructure over the coming years, providing for a regulated return on investment - 1,3001,500 MW in Exelon nuclear uprates by 2017, the equivalent of a new nuclear plant at roughly half the cost of building a new plant and no incremental operating costs Exelons Long-Term Growth Proposition Smart Grid Todays Highlights Other Key Growth Initiatives Carbon PA Procurement - Lowest carbon intensity in the sector $1.1 billion (2) and growing annual upside to Exelon revenues if Waxman-Markey legislation is enacted - $101.30/MWh (1) result in June PECO power procurement suggests higher margins at Exelon Generation in 2011 and beyond - Developing business plan for transmission company to improve reliability, reduce congestion, mitigate oversupply and allow our Midwest fleet to maintain its baseload value Transmission (1) Reflects retail price including line losses and gross receipts
tax. (2) Assumes $15/tonne carbon pricing.
|
9 9 Nuclear Uprates Offer Long-Term Growth at Low Cost and Low Risk 1400 Year Uprates Become Operational Exelons Uprate Plan: 1,300 1,500 MW 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1600 1999- 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2009- 2017 1,100 MW 1,300 1,500 MW Average Overnight Cost Estimate: $2,200 - 2,500/KW Exelon has proven experience in safe and economical nuclear uprates to improve
efficiency and output at substantially lower cost than building a new nuclear
plant Equivalent size of a new nuclear unit Low Cost About half the cost of a new nuclear unit No incremental O&M expense Low Risk Compared to the potential delays and cost overruns of building a new plant Able to phase in based on market and economic conditions provides flexibility to ensure appropriate returns for shareholders Proven Experience 1,100 MW of nuclear uprates on Exelon fleet already successfully executed Leverages competitive advantage in operating the nations largest nuclear fleet |
10 ComEd Smart Grid/Smart Meter Smart Meter (or Advanced Metering Infrastructure - AMI) Pilot Filed with ICC for approval on June 1, 2009 Decision expected in November 2009 1-year pilot program for 141,000 smart meters and related programs Recovery with regulated return for capital investment expected to begin in 2010 through
a rider Federal Stimulus Funding Request for $175 million in matching funds made on August 4, 2009 Investment would occur through 2011 Projected Spend $ millions $350 $23 $78 $107 $139 Total $92 $6 -- $84 -- Transmission $78 Distribution Automation $23 Communication Support Systems $139 AMI & Customer Applications $258 $17 Distribution TOTAL Intelligent Substation Project Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. ComEd includes approximately $4 million
of unallocated contract expense that will be distributed to specific
projects upon finalization of scope. ComEds Smart Grid project expands
the AMI pilot and provides for regulated returns on our investments
|
11 PECO Smart Grid/Smart Meter PECO Smart Grid project provides strong returns with low recovery risk PECO intends to invest up to $750M in its Smart Grid Infrastructure $650M for Advanced Metering Infrastructure/Smart Meter investment over 10 15 years and $100M for Smart Grid over next 3 years Requested $200M Federal Stimulus Grant on August 6, 2009 Amount and timing of spending will depend on Federal Stimulus Grant and RFPs with
suppliers Smart Meter investment required by Act 129, which provides for recovery through
surcharge including a return on capital investment. Smart Grid investment to be recovered through transmission and distribution rate
cases, with approximately half the costs in each. Smart Meter rate increase starts at 0.5% in 2010 and peaks at a cumulative 2.5% in
2012; with awarded stimulus grant, increase begins at 1% and peaks at 2.1% in
2012. $ Millions 2010 2011 2012 Total Act 129 Smart Meter Initial Deployment (without Stimulus Grant) 37 $ 149 $ 30 $ 215 $ With Federal Stimulus Grant Filing: Act 129 Smart Meter Expanded Initial Deployment (600K meters by 2012) 37 $ 155 $ 99 $ 291 $ Smart Grid Stimulus Case 45 52 10 107 Total Stimulus Case 82 207 109 398 Stimulus Grant Request (41) (103) (53) (197) Total Expenditures net of Stimulus grant 41 $ 103 $ 56 $ 201 $ |
12 Value Return Framework Less Equals Maintenance Capital and Committed Dividends Free Cash Flow before Dividends and CapEx Strengthen Balance Sheet / Increase Financial Flexibility Invest in Growth Available Cash and Balance Sheet Capacity Return Value via Share Repurchases, Dividends Monetize |
13 Discretionary Pension Contribution Investing in pension plan with $350M cash on hand is estimated to create $1 billion of financial flexibility in 2011 (1) Contributions reflect the impact of electing the option to smooth asset returns provided
under the Worker, Retiree and Employer Recovery Act of 2008, which allows for a 24-month average of plan assets reflecting expected asset returns over the averaging period. Taking advantage of federal relief provided by the Worker, Retiree and Employer Recovery Act of 2008, election and contribution required by 9/15/09 to impact 2008 plan year Making $350 million discretionary 2008 pension contribution with smoothing election (1) $1 billion reduction in forecasted contribution in 2011 Smoothing election reduces present value of estimated future contributions by ~$300M compared to status quo, over the next 10 years Lowers volatility in future contributions, as smoothing election uses 24-month average of asset returns Evaluated within our Value Return Framework: Funded with $350 million cash on hand from $700 million generated in excess of original 2009 plan Increases future financial flexibility with excess cash today |
14 Protect Todays Value Deliver superior operating performance Advance competitive markets Exercise financial discipline and maintain financial flexibility Build healthy, self-sustaining delivery companies Grow Long-Term Value Drive the organization to the next level of performance Adapt and advance Exelon 2020 Rigorously evaluate and pursue growth opportunities and advancements in clean technology Build the premier, enduring competitive generation company + Exelons Strategic Direction Exelon remains focused on creating shareholder value |
15 Appendix 15 |
16 Climate Change Legislation Status Exelons advocacy efforts working to advance climate change legislation Key Dates June 26: House passage of H.R. 2454, American Clean Energy and Security Act
September 28: Deadline for Senate Committees to report out climate change
legislation but will slide due to postponement of bill introduction December 7-18: UN Climate Conference in Copenhagen Exelon Advocacy Grassroots: Mobilizing our employees, retirees, and shareholders Media: Working with a diverse group of stakeholders on earned and paid media
opportunities in favor of climate legislation Direct Lobbying: Exelon executives are meeting with key Senators and staff
Coalitions: Working with United States Climate Action Partnership (USCAP),
Edison Electric Institute and Clean Energy Group to advance climate
legislation |
17 Acquired 198 MW of wind farm output, 4.8 MW of landfill gas output and 4.5 MW of
solar output, bringing Exelons renewables portfolio to more than 2,000
MW Unveiled plans to develop the nations largest urban solar power plant in
Chicago Completed a 38-MW nuclear uprate at Quad Cities Station, launching a series of
planned uprates that will generate 1,300-1,500 MW of additional nuclear
capacity Exelon 2020 Progress Update for 2009 Offer more low carbon electricity in the marketplace Help our customers and the communities we serve reduce their GHG emissions Reduce or offset our footprint by greening our operations Exelons strategy to reduce, offset or displace more than 15 million metric
tons of GHG emissions per year by 2020 Retired less efficient and higher-emitting fossil fuel power plants in
Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Texas Reduced energy use across Exelons facilities by 16% Earned LEED certification for three Exelon buildings Greened Exelons vehicle fleet to include 1,900 hybrid-electric and
alternative-fuel vehicles at ComEd and a 57% environmentally friendly
fleet at PECO Unveiled plans to spend more than $350 million through 2011 on energy efficiency and
demand response programs to reduce customers energy consumption by 1.6 million MWh and reduce peak load by 226 MW Building on its residential real-time pricing program, ComEd introduced a smart meter pilot program that will provide advanced automated meters to up to 141,000
customers PECO is investing $342 million in customer programs to reduce overall electricity
consumption by 3% and peak load by 4.5% by 2013 3 2 1 |
18 Nuclear Uprates Offer Sustainable Value Key component of Exelon 2020 low carbon roadmap Creates additional low-carbon generation capacity Capitalizes on Exelons proven track record of execution Dedicated project management team Proven technology design No ongoing incremental O&M expense Creates long-term value over extended license lives Uprates equivalent in size to a new nuclear plant but significantly lower cost, shorter timeline and more predictable spend Straightforward regulatory and environmental licenses, permits and approvals Potential for uprates to meet state alternative energy standards Uprate projects enable cost-effective growth and leverage Exelons operational excellence Strategic Value Grow Value Regulatory Feasibility Execution Feasibility |
19 Three Major Categories of Exelon Uprates Uprates Overnight Cost (1) MUR (Measurement Uncertainty Recapture) Through the use of advanced techniques and more precise instrumentation, reactor power can be more accurately calculated Can achieve up to 1.7 percent additional output Requires NRC approval 187234 MW $300M 2 years 8991016 MW $2,400M EPU (Extended Power Uprate) Through a combination of more sophisticated analysis and upgrades to plant equipment, uprates can be obtained for as much as 20 percent of original licensed power level Requires NRC approval 3 - 5 years 237266 MW $800M Megawatt Recovery and Component Upgrades Replacement of major components in the plant occur in the normal life cycle process with newer technology, replacements result in increased efficiency Equipment includes generators, turbines, motors and transformers Megawatt Recovery and Component Upgrades must conform to NRC standards, but do not require additional NRC approval 2 - 3 years ~1,3001,500 MW $3,500M Project Duration Exelons $2,200 $2,500 / kW overnight cost for its MUR and EPU projects is an advantageous deployment of capital relative to other generation options (1) In 2007 Dollars. Overnight costs do not include financing costs or cost
escalation. |
20 Phased Execution Lowers Risk Safe, economical and proven methods to improve efficiency and output Leverages Exelons substantial experience managing successful uprate projects over the past 10 years Note: Data contained in this slide is rounded. Uprates program allows us to adjust timing to respond to market conditions EPUs MURs MW Recovery and Component Upgrades Maximum
Potential MW Year Uprates Become Operational 1999- 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2009- 2017 Exelons Uprate Plan 1,100 MW 1,300 1,500 MW Average Overnight Cost Estimate: $2,200 - 2,500/KW 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 Planned Capital Spend (1) $150 2017 $625 2013 $675 2012 $550 2011 $350 2010 $725 2015 $725 2014 $400 2016 $4,425 2008 - 2017 $225 2008 - 2009
(1) Dollars shown are nominal, reflecting 6% escalation, in millions.
|
21 Uprates Across the Exelon Fleet Base Maximum Station Case Potential MW MW Braidwood - MUR 34 - 42 2012 Byron - MUR 34 - 42 2012 Clinton - EPU 17 - 17 2016 Clinton - EPU 2 - 3 2010 Dresden - MW Recovery & Component Upgrades 103 - 110 2012 Dresden - MW Recovery & Component Upgrades 5 - 5 2011 Dresden - MUR 25 - 31 2014 LaSalle - MUR 32 - 40 2011 LaSalle - EPU 303 - 336 2016 Limerick - MUR 33 - 41 2011 Limerick - MW Recovery & Component Upgrades 6 - 6 2012 Limerick - EPU 306 - 340 2017 Peach Bottom - MW Recovery & Component Upgrades 25 - 32 2012 Peach Bottom - EPU 134 - 148 2015 Peach Bottom - MW Recovery & Component Upgrades 3 - 3 2014 Quad Cities - MUR 19 - 23 2013 Quad Cities - MW Recovery & Component Upgrades 95 - 110 2011 TMI - EPU 138 - 172 2016 TMI - MUR 12 - 15 2014 Total 1,323 - 1,516 Year of Operation Uprates will largely be completed during scheduled refueling outages
|
22 PECO Procurement With a successful residential procurement in June, PECO has made progress toward purchasing the power needed to serve customers beginning in 2011 On June 17, 2009, the PAPUC approved the bids from the Spring RFP held on June 15,
2009, which included 21% of PECOs residential default service load for 2011
and a portion of its load obligation for 2012 and 2013 Contracts were awarded to two bidders out of eleven total bidders RFP for full requirements (1) resulted in average wholesale price of $88.61($/MWh) Fall RFP bids due September 21, 2009 (1) Full requirements product includes load following energy, capacity, ancillary
transmission services and Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard requirements. (2) See PECO Procurement website (http://www.pecoprocurement.com) for additional details
regarding PECOs procurement plan and RFP results. Residential 23% of planned full requirements contracts (17 and 29-mo. terms) 40MW of baseload (24x7) energy block products (12-mo. duration) Small Commercial 24% of planned full requirements contracts (17-mo. term) Medium Commercial & Industrial 16% of planned full requirements contracts (17-mo. term) 85% full requirements 15% full requirements spot Medium Commercial & Industrial (peak demand >100 kW but <= 500 kW) 100% full requirements spot Large Commercial & Industrial (peak demand >500 kW) 90% full requirements 10% full requirements spot 75% full requirements 20% energy block 5% energy only spot Products Small Commercial (peak demand <100 kW) Residential Customer Class Residential 26% of planned full requirements contracts 17 month (Jan 2011 - May 2012) 29 month (Jan 2011 - May 2013) 40MW of baseload (24x7) energy block products 12 month (Jan 2011 - Dec 2011) PECO Procurement Plan (2) Fall 2009 RFP Spring 2009 RFP |
23 Potential Variability in Future Pension Expense and Contributions $159 $4,055 $305 $251 $4,058 $270 6.09% for 2009 5.92% for 2010 6.10% for 2011 8.5% in 2009-2011 B - Asset returns at long-term rate Unfunded balance end of year $144 $3,687 $289 $207 $3,705 $260 6.09% for 2009 5.92% for 2010 6.10% for 2011 14.15% in 2009 8.5% in 2010 8.5% in 2011 A Current baseline Unfunded balance end of year $134 $2,802 $243 $182 $2,670 $196 6.09% for 2009 7.00% for 2010 7.00% for 2011 8.5% in 2009 15% in 2010 8.5% in 2011 C Accelerated equity recovery Unfunded balance end of year $723 $4,611 $327 $326 $5,111 $285 6.09% for 2009 5.92% for 2010 6.10% for 2011 0% in 2009 0% in 2010 8.5% in 2011 D - Equity recovery in 2 years Unfunded balance end of year Required contribution (1) Pre-tax expense Required contribution (1) Pre-tax expense Discount Rate Actual Asset Returns 2011 2010 Assumptions Illustrative Scenario ($ in millions) Other Postretirement Benefits (OPEB) 2010 Expense: Exelon estimates pre-tax 2010 OPEB expense of ~$226 million, $240 million, $193 million, and $254 million under Scenarios A-D, respectively. 2010 Contributions: Exelon estimates roughly $150 million of contributions to its OPEB plans in 2010, which is subject to change, with an additional approximately $6 million paid out of corporate assets. (1) The contributions shown above include estimated pension contributions required under
ERISA and the Pension Protection Act of 2006, as well as certain discretionary contributions necessary to avoid benefit restrictions. Also included within these amounts are expected
payments to Exelons non-qualified plans of approximately $18 million and $6 million in 2010 and 2011, respectively. Contributions reflect the impact of electing the option to
smooth asset returns provided under the Worker, Retiree and Employer Recovery Act of 2008, as well as a discretionary $350 million contribution allocated to the 2008 plan year. Note: Slide provided for illustrative purposes and not intended to represent a forecast
of future outcomes. Assumes 20% overall capitalization rate of pension and OPEB costs. |
24 Exelon Investor Relations Contacts Exelon Investor Relations 10 South Dearborn Street Chicago, Illinois 60603 312-394-2345 312-394-4082 (Fax) For copies of other presentations, annual/quarterly reports, or to be added to our email distribution list please contact: Martha Chavez, Executive Admin Coordinator 312-394-4069 Martha.Chavez@ExelonCorp.com Investor Relations Contacts: Karie Anderson, Vice President 312-394-4255 Karie.Anderson@ExelonCorp.com Stacie Frank, Director 312-394-3094 Stacie.Frank@ExelonCorp.com Paul Mountain, Manager 312-394-2407 Paul.Mountain@ExelonCorp.com Marybeth Flater, Manager 312-394-8354 Marybeth.Flater@ExelonCorp.com |
25 25 25 Exelon Generation Hedging Disclosures (As disclosed on July 24, 2009) |
26 26 26 Portfolio Management Objective Align Hedging Activities with Financial Commitments Power Team utilizes several product types and channels to market Wholesale and retail sales Block products Load-following products and load auctions Put/call options Exelons hedging program is designed to protect the long-term value of our generating fleet and maintain an investment-grade balance sheet Hedge enough commodity risk to meet future cash requirements if prices drop Consider: financing policy (credit rating objectives, capital structure, liquidity); spending (capital and O&M); shareholder value return policy Consider market, credit, operational risk Approach to managing volatility Increase hedging as delivery approaches Have enough supply to meet peak load Purchase fossil fuels as power is sold Choose hedging products based on generation portfolio sell what we own Heat rate options Fuel products Capacity Renewable credits % Hedged High End of Profit Low End of Profit Open Generation with LT Contracts Portfolio Optimization Portfolio Management Portfolio Management Over Time |
27 27 27 27 Percentage of Expected Generation Hedged How many equivalent MW have been hedged at forward market prices; all hedge products used are converted to an equivalent average MW volume Takes ALL hedges into account whether they are power sales or financial products Equivalent MW Sold Expected Generation = Our normal practice is to hedge commodity risk on a ratable basis over the three years leading to the spot market Carry operational length into spot market to manage forced outage and
load-following risks By using the appropriate product mix, expected generation hedged approaches the mid-90s percentile as the delivery period approaches Participation in larger procurement events, such as utility auctions, and some
flexibility in the timing of hedging may mean the hedge program is not
strictly ratable from quarter to quarter Exelon Generation Hedging Program |
28 28 28 28 2009 2010 2011 Estimated Open Gross Margin (millions) (1,2) $5,100 $6,000 $6,150 Open gross margin assumes all expected generation is sold at the Reference Prices listed below Reference Prices (1) Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) NI-Hub ATC Energy Price ($/MWh) PJM-W ATC Energy Price ($/MWh) ERCOT North ATC Spark Spread ($/MWh) (3) $4.26 $29.42 $40.30 ($0.09) $6.06 $33.38 $48.64 ($2.17) $6.89 $35.12 $52.21 ($0.77) (1) Based on June 30, 2009 market conditions. (2) Gross margin is defined as operating revenues less fuel expense and purchased power
expense, excluding the impact of decommissioning and other incidental revenues. Open gross margin is estimated based upon an internal model that is developed by dispatching
our expected generation to current market power and fossil fuel prices. Open gross margin assumes there is no hedging in place other than fixed assumptions for capacity cleared in the RPMT auctions and uranium costs for nuclear power plants. Open gross margin contains assumptions for other gross margin line items such as various ISO bill and
ancillary revenues and costs and PPA capacity payments. The estimation of open gross margin incorporates management discretion and modeling assumptions that are subject to change. (3) ERCOT North ATC spark spread using Houston Ship Channel Gas, 7,200 heat rate, $2.50
variable O&M. Exelon Generation Open Gross Margin and Reference Prices |
29 29 29 29 (1) Expected generation represents the amount of energy estimated to be generated or purchased through owned or contracted for capacity. Expected generation is based upon a simulated dispatch model that makes assumptions regarding future market conditions, which are calibrated to market quotes for power, fuel, load following products, and options. Expected generation assumes 10 refueling outages in 2009 and 2010 and 11 refueling
outages in 2011 at Exelon-operated nuclear plants and Salem. Expected generation assumes capacity factors of 93.6%, 92.8% and 92.8% in 2009, 2010 and 2011 at Exelon-operated
nuclear plants. These estimates of expected generation in 2010 and 2011 do not represent guidance or a forecast of future results as Exelon has not completed its planning or
optimization processes for those years. (2) Percent of expected generation hedged is the amount of equivalent sales divided by the
expected generation. Includes all hedging products, such as wholesale and retail sales of power, options, and swaps. Uses expected value on options. (3) Effective realized energy price is representative of an all-in hedged price, on a
per MWh basis, at which expected generation has been hedged. It is developed by considering the energy revenues and costs associated with our hedges and by considering the fossil fuel
that has been purchased to lock in margin. It excludes uranium costs and RPM capacity revenue, but includes the mark-to-market value of capacity contracted at prices other than RPM clearing prices including our load obligations. It can be compared with the reference prices used to calculate open gross margin in order to determine the mark-to-market value of Exelon Generation's energy hedges. 2009 2010 2011 Expected Generation (GWh) (1) 169,800 165,500 164,700 Midwest 99,600 97,700 97,700 Mid-Atlantic 57,500 58,500 58,100 South 12,700 9,300 8,900 Percentage of Expected Generation Hedged (2) 95-98% 87-90% 59-62% Midwest 96-99 87-90 63-66 Mid-Atlantic 95-98 91-94 56-59 South 90-93 68-71 34-37 Effective Realized Energy Price ($/MWh) (3) Midwest $47.00 $46.75 $45.00 Mid-Atlantic $36.25 $34.50 $62.00 ERCOT North ATC Spark Spread $5.25 $3.50 $4.75 Generation Profile |
30 30 30 30 Gross Margin Sensitivities with Existing Hedges (millions) (1) Henry Hub Natural Gas + $1/MMBtu - $1/MMBtu NI-Hub ATC Energy Price +$5/MWH -$5/MWH PJM-W ATC Energy Price +$5/MWH -$5/MWH Nuclear Capacity Factor +1% / -1% 2009 $8 $0 $6 ($3) $8 ($2) +/-$20 2010 $40 ($30) $55 ($50) $25 ($20) +/-$50 2011 $280 ($240) $205 ($195) $170 ($165) +/-$55 (1) Based on June 30, 2009 market conditions and hedged position. Gas price sensitivities
are based on an assumed gas-power relationship derived from an internal model that is updated periodically. Power prices sensitivities are derived by adjusting the power price assumption while keeping
all other prices inputs constant. Due to correlation of the various assumptions, the hedged gross margin impact calculated by aggregating individual sensitivities may not be equal to the hedged gross margin impact calculated when correlations between the various assumptions are
also considered. Exelon Generation Gross Margin Sensitivities (with Existing Hedges)
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31 31 31 31 95% case 5% case $6,700 $6,500 $6,100 $6,700 $6,100 $8,400 Exelon Generation Gross Margin Upside / Risk (with Existing Hedges) $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 $9,000 $10,000 2009 2010 2011 (1) Represents an approximate range of expected gross margin, taking into account hedges in place, between the 5th and 95th percentile confidence levels. Approximate gross margin ranges are based upon an internal simulation model and are subject to change
based upon market inputs, future transactions and potential modeling changes. These ranges of approximate gross margin in 2010 and 2011 do not represent earnings guidance or a forecast of future results as Exelon has not completed its planning or optimization processes for those years. The price distributions that generate this range are calibrated to market quotes for power, fuel, load following products, and options as of June 30, 2009. |
32 32 32 32 Midwest Mid-Atlantic ERCOT Step 1 Start with fleetwide open gross margin $5.10 billion Step 2 Determine the mark-to-market value of energy hedges 99,600GWh * 97% * ($47.00/MWh-$29.42/MWh) = $1.70 billion 57,500GWh * 96% * ($36.25/MWh-$40.30/MWh) = ($0.22 billion) 12,700GWh * 91% * ($5.25/MWh-($0.09)/MWh) = $0.06 billion Step 3 Estimate hedged gross margin by adding open gross margin to mark-to- market value of energy hedges Open gross
margin: $5.10 billion MTM value of energy
hedges: $1.70 billion + ($0.22 billion) + $0.06 billion Estimated hedged gross margin:
$6.64 billion Illustrative Example of Modeling Exelon Generation 2009 Gross Margin (with Existing Hedges) |
33 33 33 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08 1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08 1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 105 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08 1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08 1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 33 Market Price Snapshot Forward NYMEX Natural Gas PJM-West and Ni-Hub On-Peak Forward Prices PJM-West and Ni-Hub Wrap Forward Prices 2010 2011 Rolling 12 months, as of August 31, 2009. Source: OTC quotes and electronic trading system. Quotes are daily. Forward NYMEX Coal $5.57 $6.57 2010 2011 $51.20 $63.34 2010 Ni-Hub 2011 Ni-Hub 2011 PJM-West 2010 PJM-West 2010 Ni-Hub 2011 Ni-Hub 2011 PJM-West 2010 PJM-West $53.18 $59.86 $39.56 $24.05 $39.38 $21.89 $43.85 $36.28 |
34 34 34 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5 13.5 14.5 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08 1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 8 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.8 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8 10 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08 1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08 1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08 1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 34 Market Price Snapshot 2011 2010 2010 2011 2010 2011 Houston Ship Channel Natural Gas Forward Prices ERCOT North On-Peak Forward Prices ERCOT North On-Peak v. Houston Ship Channel Implied Heat Rate 2010 2011 ERCOT North On Peak Spark Spread Assumes a 7.2 Heat Rate, $1.50 O&M, and $.15 adder $5.38 $6.36 $55.39 $47.02 $8.74 $8.70 $5.70 $6.98 Rolling 12 months, as of August 31, 2009. Source: OTC quotes and electronic trading system. Quotes are daily. |